Pasco's current risk view on Nigeria, however, is cautionary: “We understand that in the Delta region some former rebels have warned that they are rethinking their participation in the programme, given the lack of strong leadership in the government and the ensuing uncertainty over its commitment to reaching a peaceful solution to the ongoing crisis in the Delta region”.

The recent kidnapping of three British contractors, who were freed after six days, has only served to highlight the continuing uncertainty in the Niger Delta. Nicholls suggests that that common criminals, not militants, were responsible for the kidnapping. “The militants realised some time ago that kidnapping and violence run counter to their ultimate stated goal of increased development in the region. They recognise that their ongoing argument with oil major Shell is counter-productive and they have commented that there must be no threat to anyone who comes to the Niger Delta for development or investment purposes.” Communication between the militant groups and the government exists. A correspondent knowledgeable in the area commented: “The boys [a widely used term to describe the militants] know that investment from outside Nigeria is necessary in order to ensure the continued prosperity of their homeland. They want the region to prosper and recognise that peace and stability are key to attracting foreign investment. The government needs to uphold its side of the bargain!”

Pasco believes that communication between all stakeholders is the key to ensuring a stable environment for investment in the Delta. Our view is that the Nigerian government, the militant groups, NGO's and the international business community need to find a common dialogue if there is to be any meaningful progress. Despite the current concerns over safety in the Niger Delta, Nicholls thinks that the region still holds remarkable potential for foreign investors, provided the country can provide sufficient comfort to any investor that their assets and personnel will be safe.

The UK's Foreign and Commonwealth Office takes the following stance: “We advise against all travel to the Niger Delta States of Bayelsa, Delta and Rivers (including Port Harcourt) and advise British nationals in these States to leave. This is because of the very high risk of kidnapping, armed robbery and other armed attacks in these areas.” However, despite this stark warning, Pasco's Security director, Simon Atkinson feels “the reality on the ground is that the vast majority of visitors to the region have little to fear.” Information from the Delta is opaque, often contradictory and difficult to interpret, as Atkinson explains by way of an example; recently six of the top militant commanders, all of whom stated that they are fully committed to abandoning violence, stressed that any potential investor must learn from the mistakes of the past and ensure that any investment goes hand in hand with corporate social responsibility and a commitment to sustainable development.