Troubled Times in Nigeria

The political and economic situation in Nigeria has deteriorated markedly over the last few weeks. A fresh series of attacks by terrorist group Boko Haram and a strike over the scrapping of fuel subsidies have both contributed to instability. Investors in the region will be monitoring the situation closely and, where necessary, will wish to adapt their business practices in response to current threat levels. With extensive experience in Nigeria and in the region Pasco is well placed to help. Not only can we provide updates on the situation as it develops, but also advice on practical measures to protect staff and businesses. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you feel you need our services.

Terrorism

Boko Haram stepped up its activities in the second half of 2011 after a series of bombings timed to coincide with the election and inauguration of President Goodluck Jonathan. Boko Haram has launched a series of successful attacks in Abuja since last summer. Their most recent attacks, a coordinated bombing campaign over the Christmas period, targeted Christian churches and killed over fifty people. Rapid advances in Boko Haram's terrorist technology over the last year have fuelled speculation that they may have started to cooperate more systematically with established terrorist organisations. The fear is that their ties to Al Qaeda will grow and that Boko Haram may seek to emulate the impact of Al Shabab in East Africa.

President Jonathan's government and the Nigerian security forces are finding it difficult counter Boko Haram's activities. The President declared a state of emergency in several Nigerian states, but this has failed thus far to reduce the violence significantly. Many observers believe that the heavy military presence in Borno and neighbouring states may be exacerbating the problem. Some see it as the biggest single factor preventing any chance of a negotiated settlement and peace. Boko Haram continues to enjoy widespread support among those in Northern Nigeria who feel marginalized and excluded from wealth and opportunity. They perceive Boko Haram as fighting for justice.

Fuel strikes

As if the increased terrorist threat from Boko Haram were not enough, the Nigerian government is now facing a major new threat to public order following its own decision to abolish long established fuel subsidies. The government argued that the money from the subsidy was needed to invest in vital infrastructure to achieve sustainable economic growth, but its decision more than doubled the price of petrol for ordinary Nigerians and provoked a nationwide strike in the oil industry. Representatives of the workforce have broken off talks with the government and are threatening to shut down output in Africa's biggest crude producer, unless the government reinstates the subsidy. Analysts doubt that they could halt exports completely, but public pressure is growing on the President to reach a deal, as even a minor outage could have a significant impact on the Nigerian economy.

Troubled times indeed in Nigeria and a test of the new government at the start of 2012.