In a feature article marking the 100-day countdown to the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa on this site, we identified several key indicators of readiness and rated the country in terms of preparedness relative to those indicators. With only 10 days to go to kick-off, we thought it would be appropriate to revisit our 'readiness scorecard'.

Terrorism

Over the past few weeks there has been a noticeable increase in media speculation about a credible terrorist threat to the World Cup. Thus far South African authorities have maintained their position that they are not aware of any specific threat to the tournament and have taken all reasonable measures to prevent any attempt to disrupt the event. As set out in recent articles posted on this site, Pasco has however raised its assessment of the threat of terrorism from low to moderate, owing primarily to heightened concerns about the security environment in Cape Town. We also remain of the opinion that local and international law enforcement agencies are prepared to counter any serious threat to the tournament. On the other hand, the absence of clear communication to the public about what to expect and do in the event of a security crisis has led us to adjust our terrorism readiness assessment from an impressive 8/10 to a slightly less impressive 7/10.

Crime

Police authorities have quietly moved vagrants and other 'undesirables' away from key World Cup venues, but despite this crime continues to be a serious threat in South Africa. Pasco remains of the opinion that World Cup visitors should be safe provided they follow basic do's and dont's relating o personal safety (which we have published in other feature articles on this site). Ironically, the emphasis on protecting World Cup visitors could prove to be counter-productive to the nation in the weeks and months after the tournament has ended. One reason for this is that levels of intensity in crime prevention activities during the event will not be sustainable immediately after the tournament as fatigued officers returning from World Cup duties will inevitably take some time to resume their normal duties. A more immediate problem is that large numbers of police investigators will be re-deployed for World Cup protection duties, resulting in a substantial back-log in the investigation of serious cases once the tournament is over. Our preparedness rating remains at 5/10.

Transport Infrastructure

In our 100-days article, we gave transport readiness a score of 3 out of 10. This may have seemed overly pessimistic at the time. Unfortunately, the chaos that occurred around the friendly international between South Africa and Columbia at Soccer City in Johannesburg last week appears to have vindicated this pessimism. As one report described it, the arterial M1 highway leading from Johannesburg to the stadium was transformed into a “giant parking lot” as frustrated fans simply abandoned their vehicles alongside the road and headed for the stadium on foot. As the first major test for Johannesburg's traffic plans for the World Cup, it can only be described as disastrous. Word has it that a frantic revision of plans is taking place ahead of the opening match on 11 June, but there is bound to be a concern that this could be a case of 'too little, too late'. We continue to anticipate considerable congestion and occasional chaos in Johannesburg, Pretoria, Cape Town, Durban and possibly smaller centers such as Rustenburg for key matches. The simple advice to visitors is: get there considerably ahead of time. Our preparedness rating remains at 3/10.

Stadiums

In our 100-day article we identified a number of concerns about the readiness of World Cup stadiums and posed the question: “Is there sufficient time available to complete these activities without compromise before the event? Only time will tell.” Officially, all of the World Cup stadiums have been tested and pronounced 'ready'. Behind the scenes, there are however some serious concerns that the late appointment of security providers means that in some stadiums the stewards and marshalls may lack familiarity with the venue, particularly for opening matches. We are aware of at least one stadium that remains uncertain about evacuation instructions and procedures despite several test runs. While we are optimistic that the stadiums will cope with the demands of the World Cup, and possibly even receive better than anticipated feedback at the end of the tournament, there remains some concern about how any serious incident would be managed. In March we gave stadium readiness a 5/10 rating. Our current rating is 6/10, but we expect that after opening game jitters at some stadiums this level of readiness should improve.

Airports

We were impressed with South Africa's airports in March, and despite negative reports about lapses in security since then we remain as impressed now. However, visitors should bear in mind that any country's immigration system would be challenged by a sudden influx of World Cup fans, so it is best to anticipate possible delays in processing arriving passengers. Our rating remains at 8/10.

Hotels

We rated readiness of the hospitality sector at 9/10 in March and have received few negative reports since then to suggest that this level should be revised downwards.

Prevention of Exploitation

Little has come of the promised investigation into alleged price-fixing of airline tickets during the World Cup, so airfares remain significantly higher than at other periods. However, officials have conceded that anticipated visitor numbers will be significantly lower than originally anticipated, so the possibility of last-minute special fares cannot be ruled out. The same applies to accommodation and other costs. Some restaurants have indicated that World Cup prices will remain at current levels; others have hinted that prices could leap because of “demand”. In general, the gold-rush mentality on the part of South African entrepreneurs does however appear to be giving way to a more reasoned approach to making profits from the tournament, and we hope that this will result in a less exploitative approach to World Cup visitors. Our assessment on this dimension therefore shows some improvement, from a dismal 2/10 in March to a 5/10 currently.

Anti-Corruption

Since our March assessment (rated 3/10) we have no reason to revise this dimension in either direction and therefore retain our previous rating.

Overall Preparedness

Our assessment comes out at 5.7 – 6.0, a slight reduction from the 6.0 – 6.5 rating at the 100-day mark. Although this is somewhat disappointing, it does not necessarily translate into a higher level of risk compared to the beginning of March. Rather, it may be indicative of a concern that in the event of a significant incident, the crisis response capacity may be lacking in certain key areas.