Wednesday 3 March 2010 marks the official 100-day countdown to the 11 June kick-off of 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa. While few would argue that the tournament is the premier sporting event in the world, the decision to award it to South Africa has been strongly debated since the 15 May 2004 announcement that sparked wild celebrations throughout South Africa and indeed much of Africa. Since then, authorities responsible for the tournament – including the Local Organising Committee (LOC), FIFA and the South African government – appear to have spent much of their time reassuring sponsors, players, fans and above all the media that the event will be managed in a safe, secure and competent manner.

Whilst we also wish to share in the optimism, there have been several key gaffs on behalf of LOC the that give credence to views held by naysayers; problems with timeous appointment of security companies for the Confed Cup and the subsequent departure of members of the LOC security branch, pitches determined to be unsuitable by FIFA with less than four months to go and at the 11th hour SAFA declaring that the Bafana Bafana's World Cup base was 'totally unsuitable'. Shortly following the FIFA conference held at Sun City in February, LOC Chief Executive Danny Jordaan said, “the LOC was fine-tuning its detailed plans for the security of the tournament”, an strategically important issue, which in our opinion should have been cast in concrete some time ago.

The feature articles posted on this site have addressed a number of the concerns and risk scenarios around the World Cup, including the threat of terrorism, violent crime, the readiness of stadiums and safety personnel, and various infrastructure requirements. To mark the 100-day countdown, we thought it would be appropriate to revisit some of the key risks to a trouble-free World Cup and provide a 'readiness scorecard'. Our scorecard has not been developed with actuarial precision, it is based on extensive research, experience and engagement with various stakeholders including corporates, organising authorities, expert consultants, government departments and football fans.

The criteria of preparedness considered below are not intended to be a comprehensive checklist of all indicators of safety and security; the scores are an illustrative guide to risk. We have selected a number of factors that we debate internally at Pasco and that we use when considering levels of risk and comfort for our clients.

Terrorism

The January 2010 attack on a bus transporting the Togo national football team to a training venue in the exclave of Cabinda cast a shadow over the 2010 African Cup of Nations tournament and inevitably led to a flurry of speculation about South Africa's capacity to prevent similar incidents during the World Cup. Our opinion then was that the South African authorities were probably as prepared as any host country could be. Little has changed since then for us to alter our view. Our assessment of counter-terrorism preparedness takes into account that there has thus far been no credible threat directed against the tournament; that South Africa has maintained an essentially non-aligned status in international relations; and that local authorities have extensive behind-the-scenes support from international counter-terrorism agencies. Taking all of these factors into account we conclude that while in today's geopolitical climate one can never rule out the possibility of an unexpected attack, South Africa is generally well prepared to counter and ideally prevent any serious incident.

Preparedness Score: 8/10 (Good Pass)

Crime

Shortly after the Cabinda incident, an alleged gangster shocked the nation by stating on national television that his gang was specifically intending to target foreign visitors to South Africa during the World Cup tournament. The chilling logic of his strategy – including instructing his henchmen to avoid harming victims so that they might feel free to return to the country and could then be targeted again – reinforced concerns that in South Africa criminals act with impunity. Although the alleged mastermind was quickly hunted down and is currently in custody, crime remains the most significant threat to visitor safety during the event. Of concern to us is the impression that while crime levels have reduced at least marginally since the last major international sporting event hosted by South Africa (which we identify as the 2003 ICC Cricket World Cup), the intensity of violence during the commission of robberies and other so-called 'contact crimes' has, we believe, increased. Our analysis of the published 2009 annual crime statistics, crime and what it means for 2010, showed a dramatic year-on-year increase in a 'trio of crimes'; business & residential robberies and vehicle hi-jacking. The recent crime statistics reported an increase in kidnapping during the 2008/09 year of 9%, however, kidnap related crimes are predominately associated with family unlawful abductions/detentions. Fortunately, South Africa does not suffer from the levels of commercial kidnapping experienced in Nigeria, the Philippines and some South American countries.

Although overall, the statistics suggest that one might be less at risk compared to a few years ago, one would seem to be more at risk of death, injury or serious assault should one be targeted by criminals. We are also concerned that the controversial (even if possibly misunderstood) 'shoot to kill' policy advocated by newly appointed National Police Commissioner Bheki Cele appears to have encouraged a general disregard for the safety of citizens by some elements with the police services.

Finally, little progress appears to have been made on combating corruption within the police services, which is a key factor impeding effective crime prevention. We hope that our concerns prove to be unjustified, and that the South African Police Services distinguish themselves in terms of visible policing and general crime prevention during the tournament.

Preparedness Score: 5/10 (Borderline pass)

Transport Infrastructure

A comment made some weeks ago by a local tourism figure that South Africans should seriously consider avoiding the “chaos” during FIFA 2010 and simply stay at home or at least off the roads was met with indignant rejection by tournament organisers and government authorities. In fairness, any person exposed on a daily basis to what is effectively a severely congested road network might endorse the general sentiment that was expressed. In considering the country's preparedness on the criteria of transport infrastructure, we have however taken into account a number of factors. Included in these factors are that South Africa is not the only country whose cities struggle with traffic congestion, and our transport infrastructure remains far and away the best in Africa. Indeed, we have also considered the reality that the tolerance of motorists and other road users is currently being tested because of the extensive road upgrading projects that are underway in most of the host cities. On the other hand, we also need to consider the simple fact that key aspects of these projects which were intended to ensure an efficient World Cup are so far behind schedule that there is a real risk that they will actually prove counter-productive.

Turning attention to the World Cup curtain raiser test for South Africa, last year's Confed Cup, transport logistics were hopelessly inadequate. The 'park and ride' system was poorly planned and implemented; too few buses at the correct places and poorly trained staff operating them was the system's death knell. The country's rapid transit system meant to shuttle people between centers and venues, Rea-Vaya, is in a shambles as a result of fierce opposition from Johannesburg's taxi operators. South Africa is expecting more than 400,000 visitors and during February, the parliamentary portfolio committee on tourism expressed concern about transport arrangements during June. Timetables for bus, train and special arranged flights have not been published or made available. The portfolio committee told the department of transport to prioritise transport issues “urgently”. Have left things been left too late?

Included in this category of projects is the controversial high-speed Gautrain rail link, which definitely will not be complete come 11 June. Authorities claim that a limited service will be introduced mid-way through the tournament, but whether that will be more than simple a ride to nowhere remains to be seen. Also, while we are hopeful that potholes and malfunctioning traffic lights will be repaired in the coming 100 days, the country's road agencies appear to be cutting matters very fine. If the World Cup kicked off today, we would have little option but to fail South Africa on its delivery of an efficient and reliable transport infrastructure.

Preparedness Score: 3/10 (Fail)

Stadiums

When it comes to rating stadium readiness we are in the fortunate position of having taken overall control of safety and security for the 2009 Nelson Mandela Challenge match between South Africa and Norway, which inaugurated the revamped Royal Bafokeng Sports Palace stadium in Rustenburg. We learned then that a stadium that is to all intents and purposes a construction site a week before the event can, in fact, still be brought on-stream by event day. None of the World Cup stadiums are likely to be in that position a week before 11 June, however, and our concerns in rating these criteria are primarily to do with whether there will have been sufficient dry-runs and practice events at new stadiums to ensure an event that is safe, secure and efficient. New stadiums are in this regard a bit like new ships that require extensive and demanding 'sea trials' before being commissioned for passenger services, and it is arguable whether a couple of small-scale events constitute 'good-enough' trials for the stadiums and their personnel. Of particular concern at this stage are the new stadiums in Johannesburg (Soccer City) and Port Elizabeth, for reasons that have been set out in previous feature articles on this site. The preparedness score reflected below is therefore essentially an aggregate rating, rather than an indication connected to any particular stadium.

Additionally, the safety stewards and marshals, critical for the safe running of any event, require extensive training. Close co-operation with police and emergency services is crucial for the smooth running of an event can only be cemented with match day practice. Recent media reports of 2010 venues has demonstrated that venue security can be penetrated and lax at times. Dry-run and preparation games are ideally needed over a minimum of a six month period to ensure that all components of security; electronic surveillance and perimeter control, personnel, public announcement systems, evacuation and crisis management systems are optimally functional. Is there sufficient time available to complete these activities without compromise before the event? Only time will tell.

Preparedness Score: 5/10 (Pass, hope for improvement come 'exam time').

Airports

The Airports Company of South Africa (ACSA) may have a bad reputation when it comes to preventing theft of luggage at the country's airports, or even delivering your luggage in a reasonable period after a flight has landed, but they seem to have a knack of selecting design and construction teams that deliver for big events. So far, the World Cup is no exception. Promised extensions and make-overs at the country's major airports – OR Tambo International (Johannesburg) and Cape Town International Airport – are complete and, to extend the analogy used in discussing stadium readiness – are busy undergoing their 'sea trials'. We are not aware of major problems to date, but there is growing anxiety about whether the new King Shaka International Airport nearby Durban will be commissioned in time to ensure a smooth and effective shift from the current airport ahead of the World Cup.

Airport Preparedness: 8/10 (Good Pass)

Hotels

South African hotels rate positively by international standards and are accustomed to dealing with big events. There will inevitably be the odd complaint, but on the whole our assessment is that the hospitality sector is prepared for the World Cup and will cope with the demands placed on it.

Whether the hotel's be ready to accommodate the additional security demands of hosting a major event remains to be seen and the difference in standards between the THETA and SASS SETA's (Hotel and Security educational authorities, respectively) training modules could be a cause for concern.

Hotel Preparedness: 9/10 (Pass with Distinction)

Prevention of Exploitation

Large, global events unfortunately usually come hand in hand with a dramatic increase in the prices of services, ranging from security guards to accommodation, entertainment and travel services. The Competition Commission in South Africa is already investigating alleged collusion on the part of several domestic airlines, whose fares throughout the World Cup appear to be grossly higher than other peak tourism times. The Commission has hinted that it may also turn its attention to the country's hotel sector, which has been hard pushed to defend exorbitant room rates set for the tournament.

Prices of official FIFA 2010 merchandise (shirts, hats, and the quintessential noise-maker, the vuvuzela) have similarly been met with scorn by the general public. The reality, it seems, is that the average visitor could end up paying roughly 2-3 times what basic services and items would normally cost in South Africa. Ordinary South Africans had hoped that the World Cup would be used as an opportunity to build the country's brand and encourage investment in the country, but this is unlikely to happen if the experience of visitors is one of being commercially exploited. Sadly, the country appears to failing dismally on this subtle but critical indicator of preparedness, reflecting perhaps a lack of competitive maturity when it comes to the big events.

Prevention of Exploitation Preparedness: 2/10 (Failure).

Anti-Corruption

We regard prevention of corruption as government's counterpart to the prevention of commercial exploitation. Put simply, the key issue we are considering here relates to the prospects of a World Cup visitor returning home without having encountered a corrupt state official sometime during their stay in South Africa. By government's own admission, corruption is endemic within state services and President Zuma himself has recently pronounced the need for the country to re-visit and re-vision its moral fabric. However, few if any state departments have recognized that the World Cup is an ideal vehicle to promote and monitor anti-corruption, integrity and compliance systems. As a result, there unfortunately will be corruption encountered at border entry points, at stadiums, on the roads and on the streets. One should hope that corrupt behaviour does not result in safety and security being compromised.

Anti-corruption Preparedness: 3/10 (Failure).

Overall Preparedness

6.0 – 6.5 / 10.

This score reflects the fact that we do not anticipate any catastrophic threat to materialise. However, we do expect complaints about transport, match day logistics, high prices and complaints about petty corruption. We are hopeful that a heavy deployment of visible policing services will deter criminals, but unfortunately we do anticipate that the criminal elements in this country will try to exploit the World Cup as well.