In a recent address to Parliament, South African President Jacob Zuma stated that South Africa has a greater problem with violent crime than any other country in the world. President Zuma's comment took many observers by surprise, not least because it appears to play into the hands of those critics who have persistently claimed that South Africa is unfit to host the World Cup because of the crime problem in the country. In this FIFA 2010 feature article, Pasco analysts consider the merits of the President's argument and the actual threat of violent crime to World Cup visitors.

Background

Significantly, President Zuma's description of South Africa as the most violent country in the world was not made in reference to actual crime statistics but in support of the controversial 'Shoot to Kill' policy that has been promoted by the newly appointed Head of South Africa's police services, Bheki Cele. Both Zuma and Cele have supported the fiercely debated instruction given to police officers to use deadly force on the grounds that South Africa has one of the highest mortality rates for serving police officers in the world, so Zuma's 'most dangerous country' tag attached to South Africa should be seen in this context.

Given that the threat of violent crime is possibly the first topic that any person visiting or doing business in South Africa considers, it is relevant to ask what real information the latest crime statistics contain and whether violent crime is a significant threat to a successful FIFA 2010 event.

South Africa's Crime Statistics

The latest statistics revealed to Parliament indicate that violent crime remains a significant concern.

Illustration 1: Year on Year SAPS Crime Statistics

As Illustration 1 reflects the number of crimes reported during the period April 2008 to March 2009 increased by less than 2%, with more than 11,600 reported reductions in overall contact and contact related crimes year-on-year, which includes murder, attempted murder and assault.

Noticeable, and in some circumstances dramatic, increases, however, were reported in property related crimes, robbery with aggravated circumstances and crime heavily dependent upon police action for detection categories. These types of crimes largely took place in Pretoria (Tshwane), Johannesburg, Durban and Cape Town. Other significant trends that have a potential direct impact upon the World Cup were reported in the following categories; business robberies (up 41%), residential robberies (up 27%) and kidnapping (up 9%).

Illustration 2: Subcategories of Aggravated Robbery

In considering these trends, it should be noted that comparisons with international crime statistics are extremely difficult and sometimes impossible to draw. The reality however, is that the number of reported crimes in South Africa per capita are nearly double those reported by the European Union (EU) for a similar period.

Another key issue in considering crime statistics is that when we speak of the “crime problem” in South Africa, most persons are concerned about those crimes that impact directly upon businesses and ordinary citizens – particularly those that leave in their wake a sense of fear and personal vulnerability. Psychologically, it is not so much the statistical number of crimes that are reported that leaves a sense that South Africa is unsafe but more the nature of those crimes and the extent to which it affects us directly or impacts on those close to us. In other words, it is the sheer intensity of violence that accompanies crime in South Africa that is a key issue in determining the perceptions that residents, visitors and investors have of the country. If this is what President Zuma had in mind when describing South Africa as the “most violent” of countries, his argument may have some merit.

Another way of considering the potential for violent crime in South Africa is to note that the country ranks 123rd out of 144 countries in terms of being 'least peaceful' , according to the June 2009 Global Peace Index. Interestingly, this index factors in not only recorded incidents of violence but ease of access to weapons, respect for individual rights and propensity for violent demonstrations. Thus factors such as recurrent bouts of xenophobic violence and violent service delivery protests may explain why South Africa fell 15 places in the rankings compared to the 2008 index.

Looking Ahead Towards 2010

While the statistics and trends reflected in this article may serve to justify concerns about South Africa as a host for FIFA 2010, it should be noted that South Africa's crime statistics were of equal concern in 1995 (when the country hosted the IRB Rugby World Cup), 2003 (hosting the ICC Cricket World Cup) and this year (hosting the FIFA Confederations Cup, ICC Champions Trophy and IPL). All of those events, however, were praised for the level of security provided to foreign visitors. In fact, temporal statistical analysis suggests that rates of violent crime were considerably lower during those events than during other periods. Partly this may be due to the fact that levels of visible policing are noticeably higher during major events than at other times, thereby providing a clear deterrent effect. For FIFA 2010, we anticipate the largest deployment of state and private security personnel and support services ever witnessed in South Africa.

Secondly, it is also important to note that foreign visitors that become victims of crime in South Africa are not specifically targeted due to their citizenship but could at times be targeted because they present an alluring prospect for criminal elements. Put simply, any outward sign of affluence makes one susceptible to crime, and many criminals in South Africa reason that foreigners are more likely to carry cash and other valuables on their person than is the case with locals. Following simple but effective safety advice can mean the difference between enjoying FIFA 2010 and contributing to the country's crime statistics. A following article will deal with safety and security guidelines for 2010 visitors.